Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
