Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
